How the Upcoming Irish Election Could Shape the Future of Agriculture and Sustainability

Introduction

As Ireland approaches a pivotal election, the stakes for agriculture and rural communities have never been higher. Farming is a vital part of the Irish economy and cultural identity, but the sector faces mounting challenges, including climate targets, market volatility, and rural decline. Decisions made by the next government will profoundly impact the future of Irish farming, shaping policies on emissions, trade, and sustainability.

This article explores some of the major issues at play, outlines the proposals from key political parties, and highlights farmers’ perspectives and voting patterns.

The Current State of Irish Agriculture

Ireland’s agriculture sector is a cornerstone of its economy, contributing €14.5 billion annually and supporting thousands of rural jobs. Exports of beef and dairy alone accounted for €10 billion in 2022, but the sector is under pressure:

Emissions: Agriculture contributes 37.5% of Ireland’s total greenhouse gas emissions, mainly from livestock methane.
EU Climate Targets: Ireland must reduce agricultural emissions by 25% by 2030, as part of its broader commitment to a 51% reduction across all sectors.
Economic Challenges: Brexit-related trade changes, input cost increases, and global competition are squeezing farmers’ margins.

With over 90% of beef and dairy products exported, Ireland’s agriculture is highly exposed to global market fluctuations and policy changes.

Key Issues at Stake

1. Climate Action and Emissions:Ireland’s ambitious climate targets require a delicate balance between reducing emissions and protecting farmers’ livelihoods. The government has pledged to cut agricultural emissions by 25% by 2030, but farmers are concerned about the financial burden.

Cost of Change: Adopting low-emission technologies, such as retrofitting slurry tanks (€20,000–€40,000), represents a significant cost for smallholders.
Renewable Energy Opportunities: Plans to install solar panels on 6,000 farms by 2025 could provide additional income, but these initiatives require clearer funding commitments.
Eco-Schemes: Ireland’s CAP eco-scheme payments, averaging €66 per hectare, are seen as inadequate to drive large-scale adoption of sustainable practices. Farmers support climate action but are calling for fair and financially sustainable policies.

2. Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) Reform:CAP provides €1.2 billion annually to Irish farmers, making it essential for rural livelihoods. However, small farmers argue that funding distribution disproportionately benefits larger agribusinesses.

Funding Inequality: The top 10% of farmers receive over 50% of CAP payments, leaving smaller farms underfunded.
Environmental Incentives: CAP reforms require 25% of direct payments to be tied to eco-schemes, but the complexity of applications often deters smaller farmers.
Rural Development: CAP funds also support rural infrastructure projects, yet many rural areas continue to suffer from population decline and service closures. Farmers are urging the next government to implement CAP reforms that promote equity and simplicity.

3. Land Use and Forestry:Ireland’s target of planting 8,000 hectares of new forest annually has sparked debates over land use. In 2022, only 2,200 hectares were planted, far short of the goal.

Forestry Incentives: Grants are available for afforestation, but many farmers worry about losing productive farmland or facing long-term land-use restrictions.
Biodiversity: Agroforestry and rewilding initiatives could balance carbon sequestration with maintaining farmland.
Conflicting Demands: Competition between forestry, housing, and farming requires careful land-use planning. Farmers want assurances that afforestation policies won’t undermine agricultural productivity or local biodiversity.

4. Trade and Market Stability: Irish agriculture relies heavily on exports, particularly to the UK. However, Brexit has increased trade friction, and global agreements like Mercosur raise concerns about cheap imports.

Export Dependence: Over 60% of Irish beef exports go to the UK, leaving the sector highly exposed to market changes.
Price Competition: Irish beef prices dropped 7.5% in 2023 due to increased competition from non-EU imports.
Promoting Local Food: Investment in domestic food promotion could strengthen local markets and provide farmers with more stable income streams. Farmers are seeking trade policies that ensure fair competition and maintain export stability.

5. Rural Development: Rural communities are vital to Ireland’s farming sector but face significant challenges, including population decline and lack of infrastructure.

Broadband Gaps: Despite progress under the National Broadband Plan, 23% of rural households still lack high-speed internet.
Transport and Services: Poor transport links and the closure of 135 rural post offices and banks since 2018 have left communities isolated.
Innovation and Education: Agri-tech hubs and rural education programmes could boost productivity and create new opportunities for farmers. Investment in rural areas is crucial to support farming families and revitalise rural economies. 

What Do the Political Parties Propose?

Fianna Fáil:

• Advocates fair CAP distribution to support smaller farms.
• Plans to expand funding for low-emission technologies and rural infrastructure.
• Prioritises investment in broadband and transport for rural development   

Fine Gael:

• Focuses on innovation, including increased funding for agri-tech and renewable energy projects.
• Supports global market access for Irish exports through trade diplomacy.
• Proposes incentives for carbon-efficient farming practices.

Sinn Féin:

• Calls for CAP reforms favouring small and medium-sized farmers.
• Supports organic farming and biodiversity through eco-schemes.
• Opposes trade deals like Mercosur that disadvantage Irish farmers

Green Party:

• Prioritises ambitious emissions reductions and biodiversity restoration.
• Advocates forestry and rewilding schemes alongside a just transition for farmers.
• Promotes renewable energy adoption in agriculture.

Labour Party:

• Focuses on rural infrastructure and public investment to revitalise rural communities.
• Advocates subsidies for small-scale, sustainable farming.
• Promotes local food production and food security.

Independents and Smaller Parties:

• Highlight local issues such as overregulation and rural service closures.
• Advocate for traditional farming practices and tailored rural development policies.

The Farmers’ Perspective

Farmers are closely watching this election as it will significantly influence their livelihoods, rural communities, and the agricultural economy. Their concerns revolve around climate policies, trade stability, rural decline, and CAP funding, with key trends shaping their perspective.

Farmers’ Concerns:

Climate Action and Costs: With agriculture expected to cut emissions by 25% by 2030, 78% of farmers feel unfairly targeted by current climate policies (IFA). Retrofitting slurry tanks, for example, costs €20,000–€40,000, putting significant financial pressure on farmers.
Trade and Market Stability: Ireland exports over 60% of its beef to the UK, making the sector vulnerable to Brexit impacts and cheap imports under trade deals like Mercosur. Beef prices dropped 7.5% in 2023, intensifying farmers’ concerns about market access and competition.
Rural Decline: Population decline in rural areas has been as high as 10% over the past decade, with 23% of rural households lacking high-speed broadband, limiting farmers' access to digital tools and markets.
CAP Distribution: The top 10% of farmers receive over 50% of CAP payments, leaving smallholders calling for a fairer distribution of funds to support smaller farms and eco-schemes.

Voting Patterns Among Farmers

Farmers have historically leaned toward Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael, which together secured over 70% of rural votes in the 2020 election. However, dissatisfaction with mainstream parties has led 14% of rural voters to support independents, highlighting a shift towards more locally focused representation. Parties prioritising environmental policies, such as the Green Party, received less than 5% of the rural vote, reflecting scepticism over climate-driven agendas.

Key Demands

Fair Climate Policies: Balancing emissions targets with financial support for sustainable practices like carbon credits or methane-reducing technologies.
Trade Protections: Safeguards against cheap imports to ensure fair competition for Irish producers.
Rural Investment: Improved broadband, transport, and rural services to revitalise farming communities.
Equitable CAP Distribution: A fairer allocation of funding to support smaller farms and incentivise sustainability.
 
With these priorities in mind, farmers are looking for policies that protect their livelihoods while addressing Ireland’s climate and rural challenges. Their votes will be pivotal in shaping the next government’s approach to agriculture and sustainability.

Conclusion

The election will shape Irish agriculture’s response to climate challenges, trade dynamics, and rural development. Farmers’ votes, particularly in rural constituencies, will play a critical role in determining the direction of agricultural policy.

The decisions made by the next government will impact not only farmers but also Ireland’s economy and environment for years to come.

*By Anne Hayden MSc., Founder, The Informed Farmer Consultancy.