Irish Dairying: Navigating the Post-Boom Landscape

Introduction

Not too long ago, it felt like the sky was the limit for Irish dairy. When EU milk quotas were scrapped in 2015, it sparked a wave of optimism across the country. Farmers who’d been held back by decades of restrictions were finally free to expand, and many didn’t hesitate.

Milk flowed, herds grew, and the industry surged ahead. Between 2015 and 2020, milk output shot up by over 40%, and Ireland’s dairy herd climbed from around 1.2 million cows in 2010 to over 1.6 million in 2022. Exports boomed too, hitting €6.3 billion in 2022, with Irish butter and cheese reaching tables as far afield as China, Africa and the Middle East.

But fast-forward to today, and things are starting to shift. That era of unbridled growth is beginning to fade into the background — not because the sector has failed, but because the world around it has changed.

From Expansion to Reflection

The story now isn’t about ‘more’ — it’s about how we farm, not how much. Climate targets, environmental rules, rising costs, and an evolving market have all conspired to change the direction of travel.

Farming is still the backbone of rural Ireland, but it’s under more scrutiny than ever. Agriculture is responsible for around 37.5% of Ireland’s total greenhouse gas emissions. Within that, the dairy sector contributes roughly 21%, mostly from methane and fertilisers. It’s not an easy figure to ignore — and policy-makers, the public and even processors are watching closely.

As a result, Irish farmers are facing a new reality: one where sustainability, efficiency, and resilience are taking centre stage.

Regulations Tighten the Screws

Few changes have landed harder on the ground than the recent revisions to the nitrates rules. From 2024, Ireland’s nitrates derogation dropped from 250 kg N/ha to 220 kg N/ha in many parts of the country. For around 3,000 affected farmers— particularly those in the Golden Vale and other high-stocked regions — this has created a serious headache.

Some are being forced to cut cow numbers. Others are scrambling to lease extra land. All of them are trying to balance compliance with the day-to-day reality of running a viable business.

And it’s not happening in a vacuum. Input costs — especially fertiliser — have been volatile, peaking at €1,200 per tonne in 2022. Labour is scarce, with over 60% of dairy farmers struggling to find staff, according to Teagasc.

Overlay that with the Climate Action Plan, which demands a 25% cut in agricultural emissions by 2030, and you’ve got a sector under significant pressure to change — and fast.

Market Diversification and Value Addition

To thrive in the post-boom landscape, diversification is essential. The Irish dairy industry is exploring new markets and product lines to mitigate the risks associated with fluctuating demand. By expanding into international markets and developing value-added products, such as specialty cheeses and dairy-based nutritional products, Irish dairying can maintain its competitive edge.

Collaborations with food scientists and innovation centers are aiding in the development of unique dairy products that cater to changing consumer preferences. This strategic approach not only enhances market presence but also adds value to the existing product portfolio.

The Global Picture: A Complicated Trade Landscape

While the challenges at home are very real, Irish dairy also faces a shifting global landscape — and that can be just as unpredictable.

International trade has always played a central role in the sector. Over 90% of Ireland’s dairy output is exported, making us highly exposed to global politics and market shifts. In recent years, we’ve seen just how vulnerable that makes us.

During Donald Trump’s presidency, the US imposed stiff tariffs — up to 25% — on a range of EU agri-food products, including iconic Irish dairy items like butter and cheddar. The move, linked to a wider dispute over aircraft subsidies, hit Irish exporters hard. Some were forced to pull back; others took the financial hit just to keep their place in the market.

Although many of those tariffs were eased under President Biden, the lesson was clear: global politics can shake things at farm level, and fast. With Trump once again running for office, there’s real concern that a second term could bring renewed tariffs or other trade disruptions.

Beyond the US, competition is heating up globally. Demand from China — once a key driver of global dairy prices — has cooled. Buyers in Europe are placing more weight on carbon footprints, animal welfare, and traceability. And new players are entering the market, often with lower production costs.

In short: quality isn’t enough anymore. Irish dairy must now compete on sustainability credentials too — and that’s reshaping everything from breeding choices to packaging.

Adapting on the Ground

So, how are farmers responding?

Some farmers are getting ahead of the curve. Technology is starting to make a real difference — from precision grazing systems and real-time herd monitoring, to soil testing and low-emission slurry spreading (LESS).

The uptake of LESS has been particularly encouraging — used on over 70% of farms now, up from just 20% in 2016. It’s reducing ammonia loss, improving nutrient efficiency, and helping farmers stay within regulatory limits.

Selective breeding is also proving its worth. By choosing cows with better feed efficiency and lower methane output, farmers are seeing productivity gains of 5–10% per animal. It’s not flashy, but it adds up — and it’s part of a wider shift towards farming smarter, not harder.

Conclusion

There’s no sugar-coating it — Irish dairying is going through a period of real adjustment. The old model of endless growth is being replaced by something more cautious, more nuanced. And that’s not a bad thing.

But it does mean farmers are being asked to carry a heavier load — to be food producers, environmental stewards, data managers, and compliance officers, all at once.

The good news? Irish farmers are nothing if not resilient. They’ve adapted to quotas, Brexit, extreme weather, and volatile markets. They’ll adapt again. But they’ll need support — not just in the form of grants or schemes, but with clear direction, practical tools, and a fair slice of respect.

At The Informed Farmer Consultancy, we work with dairy farmers every day who are rising to the challenge. They’re not looking for handouts — they’re looking for workable solutions, long-term thinking, and a bit of common sense.

Because this next phase of Irish dairying isn’t about scaling back. It’s about scaling better — building a sector that’s cleaner, leaner, and future-proofed.

The world still wants Irish dairy. But it wants it with integrity, transparency, and a lighter footprint. And if we get this right — we won’t just stay competitive. We’ll lead the way.

*By Anne Hayden MSc., Founder, The Informed Farmer Consultancy.