The Bitter Truth: Climate Change and the Future of Chocolate

Introduction 

For many of us, chocolate is more than just a sweet treat. It is a source of comfort, a reward after a long day, or a staple in moments of celebration. Whether it’s a rich bar of dark chocolate, a carefully crafted truffle, or a simple hot chocolate on a cold evening, it is hard to imagine life without it.

But this beloved indulgence is under threat. Scientists are warning that climate change is having a profound impact on cacao production, particularly in West Africa, where around 70 per cent of the world’s cacao is grown. Rising temperatures, unpredictable rainfall, and an increase in pests and diseases are making it harder for farmers to cultivate the cacao beans that are the foundation of every chocolate product.

As a result, cocoa prices are soaring, and the long-term availability of chocolate is increasingly uncertain. If we do not take action, chocolate could become a luxury that is out of reach for many.

So, what is happening, and what does it mean for the future of chocolate?

West Africa: The Beating Heart of Chocolate Production

The world’s chocolate supply depends heavily on two countries—Ivory Coast and Ghana. These nations produce more than half of the world’s cacao, but the industry there is facing mounting difficulties.

A recent report by Climate Central has revealed that, over the past decade, climate change has added three extra weeks of excessive heat during the main growing season. For cacao trees—plants that thrive in stable, humid conditions—this shift is already proving to be devastating. The additional heat places enormous stress on the trees, weakening their productivity and making them more vulnerable to disease.

Farmers are reporting falling yields and increasing crop failures, and with no end in sight to the changing climate, the crisis is deepening.

The Perfect Storm: Why Cacao Production is Struggling

The problems facing cacao farmers are not new, but climate change is making them worse. It is amplifying existing challenges, creating a vicious cycle that threatens the long-term viability of the industry.

1. Rising Temperatures and Unpredictable Rainfall:

Cacao trees are sensitive to environmental changes. They require just the right balance of warmth, shade, and moisture to thrive. But climate change is disrupting this delicate balance.

• Excessive heat is stressing cacao trees, making them less productive and more susceptible to disease. Some trees are simply dying in the extreme conditions.
• Unreliable rainfall is also causing major problems. Heavy downpours are leading to floods that damage crops, while prolonged dry spells are preventing cacao trees from getting the moisture they need to survive.
  

Farmers who have relied on the same growing patterns for generations are now struggling to predict what each season will bring.

2. Pests and Diseases Spreading More Rapidly:

Warmer temperatures do not only affect cacao trees—they also encourage the spread of pests and plant diseases. Some of the most serious threats include:

• Black pod disease, a fungal infection that spreads in humid conditions and can wipe out entire cacao harvests.
• Cacao swollen shoot virus, an insect-borne disease that is already causing devastation in Ghana.
• Capsid bugs, small insects that feed on cacao pods, causing significant damage to crops.
  

Farmers who rely on cacao as their primary source of income often lack the resources to combat these threats, leaving them vulnerable to significant losses.

3. Deforestation and Illegal Farming Practices:

With declining yields, some farmers are turning to deforestation in an attempt to plant more cacao trees. However, this is only a short-term solution.

• By cutting down forests, farmers remove the natural shade that helps cacao trees survive extreme heat. In the long run, deforestation worsens climate change, making growing conditions even more difficult.
• Governments and environmental organisations are working to curb illegal farming, but with cacao farming being the backbone of many local economies, solutions are not straightforward.

The Human Cost: Farmers Are Struggling to Cope

For millions of smallholder farmers in West Africa, cacao farming is not just a job—it is a way of life. Yet, despite producing the raw material for a multi-billion-euro industry, most cacao farmers earn less than €3 a day. A 2020 VOICES Project report found that 60 per cent of cacao farming households in Ivory Coast and Ghana live in poverty, struggling to afford food, healthcare, and education.

Climate change is making matters worse. According to Christian Aid, extreme weather events such as droughts, erratic rainfall, and floods have significantly reduced yields. Between 2009 and 2019, Ghana lost 23 per cent of its potential cocoa harvest due to climate stress, while parts of Ivory Coast saw production drop by up to 40 per cent. With limited access to irrigation, pest control, or financial support, many farmers are being pushed to the brink.

The younger generation is increasingly unwilling to take on this uncertain livelihood. A World Cocoa Foundation studyfound that over 70 per cent of young people from cacao-farming families in Ghana and Ivory Coast do not want to follow in their parents’ footsteps, opting instead for more stable urban jobs.

If this trend continues, the Fairtrade Foundation warns that half of the land currently used for cacao farming could become unsuitable by 2050, threatening the global chocolate supply and driving prices even higher. Without intervention, the world could face not only a shortage of cacao but also the loss of entire farming communities reliant on its production.

A Bitter Reality: The Impact on Chocolate Prices

As cacao production declines, cocoa prices are soaring. In 2024, cocoa prices hit over €5,600 per metric tonne, the highest in nearly 50 years, due to poor harvests in Ivory Coast and Ghana. The International Cocoa Organisation (ICCO) reports that global cocoa production fell by 11 per cent in 2022-2023, with further declines expected.

This has forced chocolate manufacturers to increase prices. Mondelez International, owner of Cadbury, raised prices by over 20 per cent in the past year, while Nestlé and Hershey have also warned of continued price hikes. Analysts predict that if current trends persist, chocolate bars could double in price by 2030.

But this is not just a cost issue—it is a supply crisis. The Financial Times warns that climate change poses an “existential threat” to cacao farming, with rising temperatures and erratic rainfall expected to make much of West Africa unsuitable for cultivation by 2050. A study by the International Center for Tropical Agriculture estimates that climate change could reduce Ghana and Ivory Coast’s cacao-growing areas by up to 50 per cent within decades. If this happens, chocolate could become a rare and expensive luxury.

What Can Be Done?

The good news is that there are solutions, and efforts are already underway to protect the future of chocolate. Some of the most promising strategies include:

• Developing climate-resilient cacao trees: Researchers are working on heat- and drought-resistant cacao varieties. The International Cocoa Genebank has identified over 100 cacao strains with traits that improve resilience, while trials in Brazil and Ghana have shown that some hybrid varieties can increase yields by 30 per cent under extreme conditions.
• Agroforestry techniques: Growing cacao alongside shade trees and other crops can improve soil health, reduce temperature stress, and increase biodiversity. Studies by the World Agroforestry Centre suggest that cacao grown under agroforestry conditions can improve yields by 15-40 per cent and make farms more resilient to extreme weather.
• Fairer supply chains: Currently, many cacao farmers earn less than 6 per cent of the final retail price of chocolate. Initiatives like the Living Income Differential (LID), introduced in 2019 by Ghana and Ivory Coast, aim to ensure that farmers receive a higher price for their cacao. Early reports show that the scheme has improved incomes for over a million farmers, though enforcement remains a challenge.
• Efforts to curb deforestation: The Cocoa & Forests Initiative, backed by major chocolate companies, has helped restore over 465,000 hectares of forest in West Africa since 2017. Satellite monitoring and stricter land-use policies are also being introduced to protect the rainforests that provide crucial shade and moisture for cacao farms.

However, these solutions require significant investment, research, and global cooperation. Without stronger commitments from governments, businesses, and consumers, the challenges facing cacao farmers—and the future of chocolate—will only intensify.

Conclusion

Chocolate has been a source of joy for generations, but its future is far from certain. Climate change is making cacao farming increasingly difficult, with extreme heat, erratic rainfall, and pests putting immense pressure on farmers. In West Africa, where most of the world’s cacao is grown, production is already declining, forcing up prices and threatening the livelihoods of millions. If this continues, chocolate could become a luxury that few can afford.

But there is still time to change course. Scientists, farmers, and industry leaders are working on solutions—from climate-resilient cacao trees to more sustainable farming methods and fairer prices for growers. Governments, businesses, and consumers all have a role to play in supporting these efforts.

The future of chocolate depends on the action we take now. By choosing ethical brands, supporting sustainable farming, and pushing for policies that protect farmers and the environment, we can help ensure that chocolate remains a treat for generations to come.

*By Anne Hayden MSc., Founder, The Informed Farmer Consultancy.