The Future of Farming in Ireland and Europe: Trends and Projections

Introduction:

As the agricultural landscape faces unprecedented change, the future of farming in Ireland and across Europe  will be shaped by a mix of challenges and opportunities. The sector is navigating climate change, technological innovation, shifting consumer demands, and policy reforms—factors that together will redefine how we produce food, manage land, and sustain rural communities. This blog delves into key trends and projections for farming in the coming years, with a particular focus on Ireland's unique position within the broader European context (particularly the EU).

1. Climate Change and Sustainability

One of the most pressing concerns for the future of farming is the impact of climate change. In Ireland, agriculture accounts for a significant proportion of total greenhouse gas emissions—37.5% in 2021, predominantly from livestock farming. This is much higher than the EU average of 10%, highlighting the challenge Ireland faces in reducing its agricultural carbon footprint. Methane, a potent greenhouse gas, is a major contributor to these emissions, with livestock (particularly cattle) responsible for approximately 60% of the country’s methane output.

The European Union (EU) has committed to ambitious climate goals, including carbon neutrality by 2050, and Ireland must align its agricultural practices with these targets. Under the Global Methane Pledge, the EU has also committed to a 30% reduction in methane emissions by 2030. This poses a particular challenge for Ireland’s dairy and beef sectors.

The increasing frequency of extreme weather events—such as flooding, droughts, and heatwaves—will further complicate farming operations. To mitigate the impact, both Ireland and Europe are expected to shift towards more sustainable practices. These could include:

Carbon farming: Farmers may be incentivised to sequester carbon in soils and hedgerows through cover cropping, agroforestry, and reduced tillage practices.
Regenerative agriculture: This practice, which focuses on enhancing soil health, biodiversity, and ecosystem resilience, is likely to gain traction. It prioritises long-term sustainability over short-term yields.
Reduced methane emissions: In Ireland, where livestock farming is prevalent, the development of feed additives that reduce methane emissions from cows could become a game-changer. Some solutions have already been trialled, and their broader adoption could significantly reduce Ireland’s agricultural emissions.

2. Technological Innovation: The Digitalisation of Farming

Technology will play an integral role in transforming European and Irish agriculture. Farms are becoming increasingly digitised, allowing for more efficient and precise management of resources. Precision agriculture, which utilises data-driven tools to optimise planting, irrigation, and harvesting, is becoming more mainstream and could increase productivity by up to 20%, while also reducing fertiliser usage by as much as 30%.

Innovations to watch include:

Drones and satellite imagery: These technologies are helping farmers monitor crop health, manage pests, and optimise input use from the sky. Irish farmers, especially in arable sectors, are adopting these tools to gain real-time insights into their fields. Across Europe, the use of drones in farming is expected to increase by 40% annually between 2020 and 2025.
Robotics and automation: Labour shortages, exacerbated by rural depopulation, are pushing the adoption of robots for harvesting, weeding, and even milking. Automated milking systems are particularly relevant to Ireland’s dairy sector, which comprises over 18,000 farms. These systems can help reduce the need for manual labour while improving efficiency.
Artificial Intelligence (AI): AI-powered tools can analyse vast amounts of data from sensors, weather forecasts, and market trends to help farmers make better-informed decisions. This is particularly relevant in dairy farming, where technology is being used to improve herd management, reduce disease, and optimise milk production.

Ireland’s relatively small average farm size of 32.5 hectares—compared to the EU average of 16.6 hectares—could pose a challenge to adopting these technologies on a wide scale. However, co-operative models and government support might allow smaller farms to pool resources and share technological infrastructure, making it more accessible to all.

3. Policy and the European Green Deal

The future of farming in Europe is intrinsically linked to the EU's policy landscape. Central to this is the European Green Deal, which aims to make Europe the first climate-neutral continent by 2050. Agriculture is a key pillar in this strategy, with ambitious goals outlined in the Farm to Fork Strategy and the Biodiversity Strategy for 2030.

Ireland, like other member states, will need to implement significant reforms, which could include:

Reducing pesticide and fertiliser use: The Farm to Fork Strategy aims for a 50% reduction in the use of chemical pesticides and at least a 20% reduction in fertiliser use by 2030. This will require innovation in pest control and nutrient management, pushing more farms towards organic and integrated farming systems.
Boosting organic farming: The EU aims to have 25% of agricultural land under organic cultivation by 2030. Currently, only 2% of farmland in Ireland is under organic production, far below the EU average of 9.1%. However, growing consumer demand and policy incentives could accelerate this transition.
Strengthening rural development: Support for rural communities will remain critical. Ireland's farming population is ageing, with 56% of farmers over the age of 55. Rural depopulation is a persistent issue, and policies will need to focus on revitalising these areas, encouraging young farmers, and ensuring that farming remains viable.

4. Consumer Trends: From Farm to Fork

European consumers are becoming increasingly conscious of the environmental and ethical implications of their food choices. This shift towards sustainability-driven consumption will have far-reaching effects on farming in Ireland and beyond. Key consumer trends include:

Plant-based diets: The rise of veganism and flexitarian diets, particularly among younger generations, is likely to continue. The global plant-based food market is expected to reach €10.7 billion by 2027, growing at a compound annual growth rate of 10.5%. This shift could see a move away from traditional livestock farming, with more focus on plant-based crops and alternative proteins. Ireland, as a major beef exporter, may need to diversify its agricultural output in response to these changing preferences.
Local and seasonal produce: The demand for locally sourced, seasonal food is also growing. In Ireland, the market for organic food grew by 17.8% in 2021, driven by increasing consumer awareness of sustainability and health concerns. This presents opportunities for Irish farmers to tap into niche markets, particularly through direct-to-consumer models like farmers’ markets and subscription-based vegetable box schemes.
Traceability and transparency: Consumers are increasingly seeking transparency about where their food comes from and how it was produced. 70% of European consumers are willing to pay a premium for food products with verified traceability. Technologies such as blockchain could help farmers provide this information, building trust with consumers and opening up new premium markets.

5. Economic Pressures and Farm Viability

The economic viability of farming is an ongoing concern, particularly for small to medium-sized farms that dominate the Irish landscape. Rising input costs, fluctuating commodity prices, and uncertainty around international trade post-Brexit have all added pressure on farm incomes.

At the European level, the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) will continue to play a pivotal role in supporting farmers. The latest CAP reform places a stronger emphasis on environmental measures, with 25% of direct payments earmarked for eco-schemes. However, there is growing concern that smaller farms may struggle to meet the new environmental conditions and could miss out on crucial funding.

The average farm income in Ireland in 2020 was €26,000, but this varies widely by sector. Dairy farms averaged €74,200, while sheep farms, prevalent in more marginal areas, earned on average just €14,600. Ireland will need to balance the need for economic support with the imperative to meet environmental targets. Cooperative models, diversification into agritourism, renewable energy production, and value-added products (such as artisanal cheese or organic meat) could offer ways for Irish farmers to improve income streams.

Conclusion: A Path Forward

The future of farming in Ireland and Europe is one of both great promise and significant challenge. The sector must undergo a profound transformation to meet the demands of a changing climate, evolving consumer preferences, and new policy frameworks.

For Ireland, this means not only reducing emissions and improving sustainability but also embracing technological innovation and fostering rural resilience. While the road ahead is complex, the potential for a more sustainable, productive, and vibrant agricultural sector is within reach—provided farmers, policymakers, and consumers work together to build a food system that supports both people and the planet.

In this rapidly evolving landscape, adaptability will be key. Farmers who are willing to embrace change, adopt new technologies, and respond to market demands will be well-positioned to thrive in the future of farming.

*By Anne Hayden MSc., Founder, The Informed Farmer Consultancy.