The Impact of the EU-India Trade Deal on Irish Farming

Introduction

When news broke in early 2026 that the European Union and India had finally agreed a trade deal, the reaction was immediate and emphatic. This was described as one of the biggest agreements the EU has ever signed, a deal decades in the making, and one that would reshape global trade relationships.

On paper, that’s true. But when you look at it through an Irish farming lens, the picture becomes more complicated. Because, while this deal opens doors wide for many sectors, most of the doors that matter to Irish agriculture remain firmly shut.

The Scale Is Undeniable

There’s no getting away from the size of this agreement.

Together, the EU and India represent a combined market of around two billion people. In global terms, that’s enormous. The two blocs account for roughly one quarter of global GDP and around one third of global trade.

The mechanics of the deal are equally striking:

• Tariffs will be removed or reduced on 96.6% of goods traded by value between the EU and India.
• EU exporters are expected to save up to €4 billion per year in customs duties once the agreement is fully in force.

On top of that, EU projections suggest exports from the EU to India could double by 2032, driven mainly by improved access for industrial goods, manufactured products and services.

For many sectors, that’s a game changer. For farming, it’s a reminder that scale doesn’t always translate into opportunity.

Where Agriculture Sits in the Deal

Despite the size of the agreement, core agricultural products were deliberately excluded from tariff liberalisation.

The products clearly kept outside the main concessions include:

• Beef.
• Dairy products.
• Rice.
• Sugar.
• Soya.

Tariffs on these goods remain in place. There’s no phased reduction, no headline market opening, and no sudden access to a fast-growing consumer base.

This wasn’t an accident or an oversight. It reflects political reality. India continues to protect its domestic farming sector, which supports hundreds of millions of people. On the EU side, agriculture remains one of the most sensitive areas in any trade negotiation, particularly where high standards and farm incomes are concerned.

For Irish farming, the result is familiar: protection, but not progress.

What That Means on Irish Farms

Ireland’s export-led farming model relies heavily on beef and dairy. Those are precisely the products that sit firmly on the “sensitive” list in this deal.

In practical terms:

• Irish beef and dairy do not gain preferential access to the Indian market.
• At the same time, Irish farmers are protected from increased imports of those same products entering the EU at reduced tariffs.

So there’s no immediate upside, but no immediate threat either.

What it does underline, though, is a wider trend that farmers recognise all too well. When trade deals reach the finishing line, primary agriculture is often something to be managed and contained, rather than actively expanded.

Where Agriculture Does Win: Whiskey and Spirits

There is, however, one part of the agri-food world that stands out, and it’s worth paying attention to why.

Spirits, including Irish whiskey, are treated very differently under this agreement. They fall into the category of processed, value-added products, rather than primary agricultural commodities.

As a result:

• Indian import duties on European spirits, which have historically been as high as 150%, are set to be reduced to 40% over time.
  That change is significant, because India is already one of the fastest-growing whiskey markets in the world.

The numbers tell their own story:

• In 2024, Irish whiskey sales in India exceeded 700,000 cases.
• This represented a 57% increase on the previous year.
• Sales were around 900% higher than in 2020.

Those figures matter because they show where trade deals are delivering tangible gains. Value-added, branded products are increasingly at the centre of global trade strategy, while raw commodities remain on the edges.

A Very Clear Divide

This agreement draws a sharp line.

On one side are:

• Industrial goods.
• Manufactured products,
• Services.
• Value-added food and drink such as spirits.

On the other are:

• Sensitive primary agricultural products like beef and dairy.

For Irish farming, that split isn’t new, but it is becoming more pronounced. Protection remains, but meaningful new export opportunities for core farm outputs continue to be hard to secure in large trade negotiations.

Why Farmers Still Need to Pay Attention

Even though agriculture sits largely outside the deal, it would be a mistake to dismiss it as irrelevant.

Lower tariffs on machinery and manufactured goods affect input markets. Growth in processing, drink and export-led sectors supports rural employment. And the success of products like Irish whiskey highlights where policy, investment and trade momentum are heading.

For farmers and agri-food businesses, understanding what is included and what is excluded in deals like this is essential when making long-term decisions.

Conclusion

The agreement still needs to be ratified by the European Parliament, EU member states and India’s legislature before it takes effect, a process expected to take many months. But the shape of the deal is already clear.

It reflects a broader global trend: trade agreements increasingly reward scale, processing and branding, while primary agriculture is protected, but rarely pushed forward.

For Irish farming, recognising that reality, and planning within it, may matter more than the headlines around any single deal.

*By Anne Hayden MSc., Founder, The Informed Farmer Consultancy.