Understanding Grocery Price Inflation in Ireland

Introduction 

It’s no secret that Irish households are feeling the pinch at the checkout. The latest data shows grocery price inflation has crept up to just over 4.5%, which is around 1.16 percentage points higher than this time last year. It might not sound dramatic on paper, but in real terms, it’s making the weekly shop noticeably more expensive for families across the country.

And while the spotlight often lands on supermarket tills and shopping baskets, the story runs much deeper—into the fields, warehouses, supply chains, and global trade agreements that underpin the entire food system.

Let’s take a closer look at how this is all playing out—and what it means for the wider agricultural and sustainability sectors in Ireland.

Feeling the Pressure: How Irish Shoppers Are Adapting

With the average price of groceries now 3.8% higher than last year, most shoppers are making more conscious choices. People are budgeting more carefully, weighing up value for money, and increasingly taking advantage of promotions and special offers, which now account for 23% of total grocery spending—up from 19% in 2024.

In other words, the promotional aisle isn’t just a nice-to-have—it’s becoming a key part of how people shop.

We’re also seeing a steady shift towards own-label products—the supermarket’s own versions of everything from pasta to yoghurt. These ranges are no longer seen as the ‘cheap’ option. In fact, many have improved in quality and are marketed with sustainability in mind. Sales of own-label items have jumped by 4.5% and now make up 47.6% of all value sales.

That said, brand loyalty is holding strong too. Branded products have grown at exactly the same rate—also up 4.5%—with a market share of 47%. It seems Irish shoppers are mixing and matching: opting for own-label on everyday basics, but still reaching for the brands they know and trust when it matters.

Who’s Leading the Way in Grocery Retail?

When it comes to market share, the big players are holding firm:

• Dunnes Stores leads the pack with 24.4% of the market.
• Tesco is close behind at 23.2%.
• SuperValu rounds out the top three with 20.2%.

Each is adapting in its own way—whether through loyalty schemes, sustainable product ranges, or investing in digital platforms.

One area that’s seen remarkable growth is online grocery shopping, which now accounts for 6.9% of the market—a major leap from just 2.7% in 2020. Shoppers spent an additional €20.8 million online this year compared to last, and that shift looks set to stay.

For Irish producers and suppliers, this digital demand creates new challenges around packaging, delivery logistics and customer experience—but it also opens up huge opportunities for storytelling, traceability, and product differentiation.

Looking Beyond Our Shores: Could US Tariffs Hit Irish Food Prices?

While much of the conversation around food inflation in Ireland rightly focuses on local issues—rising input costs, shopper behaviour, and retailer responses—it’s just as important to keep an eye on what’s happening beyond our borders. International politics, particularly trade relations with the United States, could soon have very real consequences for Irish producers and, ultimately, for consumers.

With Donald Trump now back in the White House, early signals suggest that a return to protectionist trade policy is firmly on the agenda. One of the key proposals currently under discussion is the introduction of tariffs on EU imports, with rates potentially ranging between 10% and 20%. While these are framed as measures to support American industries, the knock-on effects could hit Ireland’s agri-food sector hard.

The United States is one of Ireland’s most valuable agri-food export markets outside the EU. In 2024, Irish whiskey exports topped €1 billion, with around 40% of that going to the US. Irish butter has also become increasingly popular with American consumers, with exports rising by over 10% in a single year. These figures represent not just strong trade relationships, but also thousands of Irish jobs and rural livelihoods tied to their success.

When these proposed tariffs are fully implemented, it’s likely that Irish goods will become less competitive in the American market, simply due to the added cost. That could result in reduced demand, slower exports, and producers facing the challenge of finding alternative markets at short notice.

The impact doesn’t stop at the border. If EU producers as a whole begin to face barriers selling into the US, many will turn their focus back to the European market—including Ireland. That could lead to an oversupply in certain product categories, which in turn would drive down prices. For Irish producers already grappling with rising input costs, this would make already tight margins even tighter.

And those input costs are worth a mention on their own. Irish farms are deeply integrated with global supply chains when it comes to essentials like animal feed, fertilisers, fuel, and packaging. Between 2021 and 2023, input costs for Irish farms increased by around 27%, driven mainly by global price fluctuations in energy and fertiliser. If international trade tensions rise, those costs could climb further—making it more expensive to produce food here at home.

It’s a clear reminder that global politics are anything but abstract. Decisions made in Washington can directly affect the cost of producing a litre of milk in Mayo or a packet of cheese in Meath.

For those working across the agri-food sector, these risks highlight the importance of being prepared, diversified, and resilient. From producers to processors and exporters, the ability to navigate external shocks has become a central part of doing business in a globally connected food economy.

The Sustainability Equation: More Than Just a Buzzword

In the midst of all this, one thing hasn’t changed: the growing demand for sustainability.

It’s no longer just about ticking boxes or using compostable packaging—it’s about building resilience into the food system. That means smarter supply chains, better soil management, lower emissions, and more transparency across the board.

Consumers, even while watching their wallets, are still choosing products that align with their values. Whether it’s buying local, supporting regenerative farming, or avoiding excessive plastic, sustainability continues to matter. In many cases, shoppers now expect value and ethics to go hand in hand.

And for agri-businesses, sustainability isn’t just the right thing to do—it’s becoming a competitive advantage. Retailers are looking to stock products that align with their ESG targets. Brands with clear environmental and social commitments are more likely to stand out, both on the shelf and online.

Implications for Ireland’s Agricultural Sector

What does all this mean for those on the ground—farmers, producers, processors, and policymakers?

In short: the sector is being asked to evolve.

• Input costs are unlikely to return to pre-pandemic levels.
• Labour availability remains tight.
• Consumers are expecting both value and ethics.
• And global trade volatility is here to stay.

The challenge—and the opportunity—lies in building a food system that can weather all of this. That might mean greater diversification, regional collaboration, embracing innovation, or investing in skills and infrastructure that future-proof the sector.

For policymakers, it means creating the right supports and incentives to help Irish agriculture thrive in a changing world. That includes everything from CAP reform and climate-smart subsidies to rural broadband and logistics infrastructure.

Grocery Store 

Grocery price inflation is just one part of a bigger story. Behind it lies a web of interconnected factors—economic, environmental, and geopolitical—that are shaping how we grow, process, buy, and eat food in Ireland.

At The Informed Farmer Consultancy, we’re here to help agri-food stakeholders make sense of this complexity. Whether you're a grower looking to reduce costs sustainably, a retailer planning for future supply chain risk, or a food brand navigating consumer trends, we can support you with practical insights and strategic thinking grounded in both experience and current realities.

The future of food in Ireland is being shaped right now—and it starts with understanding the challenges, and responding with clarity, creativity and confidence.

*By Anne Hayden MSc., Founder, The Informed Farmer Consultancy.